Quote Ticker
  • CORN (Sep 15) 371'6 -2'2 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Dec 15) 381'6 -2'4 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Mar 16) 392'6 -2'6 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Aug 15) 979'0 -9'4 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Sep 15) 951'6 -11'2 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Nov 15) 939'4 -9'6 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Sep 15) 498'2 2'6 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Dec 15) 503'6 0'4 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Mar 16) 509'6 -0'6 7/31/15   1:18 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Aug 15) 3552 - 25 7/31/15   1:17 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Sep 15) 3391 - 40 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Oct 15) 3274 - 32 7/31/15   1:18 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Aug 15) 29.95 -0.30 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Sep 15) 30.05 -0.30 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Oct 15) 30.14 -0.30 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Sep 15) 240'2 6'2 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Dec 15) 250'2 5'4 7/31/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Mar 16) 257'4 3'2 7/31/15   1:16 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Aug 15) 1.502 0.004 7/31/15   1:16 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Sep 15) 1.518 -0.002 7/31/15   2:34 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Oct 15) 1.501 -0.008 7/31/15   1:16 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Aug 15) 16.41 0.03 7/31/15   1:51 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Sep 15) 16.49 -0.05 7/31/15   1:36 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Oct 15) 16.28 0.01 7/31/15   1:48 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Sep 15) 127'19.5 0'19.0 7/31/15   4:00 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Dec 15) 126'26.0 0'20.0 7/31/15   3:14 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Mar 16) 126'06.5 0'20.0 7/31/15   2:01 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Sep 15) 2100.70 - 5.30 7/31/15   3:17 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Dec 15) 2090.00 - 5.40 7/31/15   3:17 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Mar 16) 2051.40 - 5.40 7/31/15   3:17 PM CST
  • DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Sep 15) 17617.00 215.00     CST
  • DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Dec 15) 17527.00 215.00     CST


Local Cash Bids
North Central PAMill Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Mar 31, 16    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Oct 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
Western PA Farm Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
South Central PA Mil Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Dec 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Sep 30, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Eastern OH Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
Fob New Jersey Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Dec 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Sep 30, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Price as of 08/02/15 01:20PM CDT.
Click to view more Cash Bid Trading System

CHART OF THE DAY

July 27, 2015
 

**  US corn  rated 69% Good-Ex. (unch wk/wk), vs.  76% last year. 55% silking.
**  World  weather eyeing “hot and dry” in France/Ukraine. Brazil  farmers resuming harvest.
** World corn carryout seen at a multi-year high.  World  Stocks/Use at top-end of a ten year range.
** Ethanol margins  breakeven at best.  Livestock  weak.  Export competitiveness  suffering.
**  Corn Ethanol mandate set at 13.4 bil gal for 2015 vs. 13.25 bil in 2014. 2016 increases to 14.0 bil.
**  In  one month, spec funds have moved from record net shorts in corn to  ~100,000 net long today.

Overnight,  the  corn  market  put  in  a  classic  summer  “gap  ‘n  go”  Sunday  to  the  downside,  as  a  trade
below $4 Dec ran the stops and prompted double-digit losses of the day.  As is typical following a big
sell-off (60+ cents in just two weeks), there are plenty of excuses for the price action; improving US
weather, much cheaper world (Brazil) values,  and continued financial market  jitters and deflationary
chatter, to name a  few.  The new input was offered up Friday afternoon in the weekly CFTC report,
which found that funds apparently added to their long positions on the break?  Assuming the report is
correct (which is a big “if”), funds went into last week long more than 200,000 contracts of corn, many
of which likely have a $4+ price tag on them.  Can they sit through the heat of another loss of equity, or
will the margin man continue to have his day in the grain markets?  Stay tuned.  Crop Progress data
tonight is expected  to see some improvement following a solid week of dry weather for the soggy East,
which should greatly improve conditions there.  Beneficial rains fell over the weekend in Iowa & E SD,
though  the  condition  reports  will  likely  not  pick  those  up?    5  day  precip  maps  show  decent  1  inch
accumulations in the garden spots, along with only modest showers across the balance of the Midwest.
6-10  &  8-14  day  outlook  maps  are  cool  for  the  Midwest,  with  generally  average  chances  of  precip
expected in the latter half of  the outlook.

Assuming we hold CZ below $4 today, the corn market seems like it is heading for a $3.70 print. We
feel this is a great opportunity for end-users in particular.  Begin with a conservative approach;  Dec or
Mar Calls or  Call Spreads to  start, and  eventually scale into futures and/or short put strategies  on
additional  weakness. Upside  counts  in  the  high  $4  area ($4.80) remain  open  – though  it  may  be
several weeks, if not months, until we seriously challenge them!


The corn market kept the bulls on the run heading into the weekend, with futures falling another 10-11
cents Friday.  For the week, futures fell 28 cents, or over 6%, which is one of the largest single week
declines seen in almost one full year.  Funds were estimated net sellers of 16,000 corn Fri.  New crop
farm sales picked up a little as the magic $4 price tag suddenly looked all too vulnerable.  Basis was a
little weaker on the day, but was still firmer for the week as end-users search for their last bits of old
crop coverage.  Cattle on Feed released after the close found larger-than-expected feedlot inventories,
up 2% yr/yr.  US corn has struggled to find a home amid a sea of discounted Brazil offers.  New crop
(15/16) corn bookings stand at just  3.86  mmt,  almost  half the 6.99 mmt  booked this time  last year.
South Korea was back in for another cargo of optional origin corn for Dec/Jan arrival  – business likely to
go to Brazil?  Rumors persist of additional Brazilian corn trading into US feeding operations in the East,
though the recent break may stem that arbitrage some?  Ethanol margins remain “breakeven at best”,
which could limit the willingness of some to chase after basis strength.

Local Conditions
Mifflintown, PA
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 82oF Feels Like: 83oF
Humid: 46% Dew Pt: 59oF
Barom: 29.92 Wind Dir: N
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 5 mph
Sunrise: 6:04 Sunset: 8:22
As reported at SELINSGROVE, PA at 1:00 PM
 
Local Radar
Mifflintown, PA
Radar
 
Local Forecast
Mifflintown, PA

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
High: 86°F
Low: 57°F
Precip: 0%
High: 89°F
Low: 62°F
Precip: 51%
High: 82°F
Low: 64°F
Precip: 63%
High: 82°F
Low: 59°F
Precip: 0%
High: 77°F
Low: 58°F
Precip: 40%
View complete Local Weather

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Video Clips

This year has divided the country in half with the areas west of the Miss River generally enjoying
perfect growing conditions that could lead to very strong yields in both corn and beans. The
areas  east  of the Miss  River  and  just  the  opposite with too  much  rain  that  has  hampered
planting and growing conditions. There are some areas that will have strong crops but those are
surrounded  by  flooded  acres  that  may  not  produce  much  at  all. This  will  make  it  nearly
impossible to get a solid estimate of production. We know the east has been hurt but not all of
those crops are lost. The tables below may not represent much more than mental gymnastics
but there is a lot riding on the crop potential this year.

Bean  production  estimates come  in  at 44.1  bpa  and  3.640  bil  bu with  1.7  mil  acres  lost  to
prevent plant. Customers in NW Mo report 50 pct of first crop beans will go prevent plant.
 

The biggest problem with the yield estimates above is that it tends to drive prices higher at a
time when US wheat, corn and beans are not competitive with other origins. This will lead to
larger imports and reduced exports for US grains and oilseeds in the coming year. This is most
clearly seen with current wheat basis levels down to 5 to 10 over in SRW barges.

Corn  prices  rally  88  cents  off  the  lows  made  in  Jun  so  we  can  assume  that  some  of  the
tightening of supplies has already been accounted for in current price structure. But supplies
have tightened to a levels that will require almost a bushel for bushel cut in consumption of
yields are  cut more.  Same  thing  can  be  said  about  beans. However, beans  are much more
uncertain than corn. We are still not sure of the total acres and do not feel the current survey by
NASS  will  catch  all  of  the  problems.  That  survey  was  run  in  early  Jly  and some of  these
problems were outside of the states being re-surveyed. The new crop bean rally top to bottom
was $1.50.  So  that  market  has  also  discounted  some major damage  to  the  crops.  This  US
development takes place on the back of two record So Amer crops so they will offset some of
the US losses---and world stocks are still 10 MMT larger than they were at the end of last year.
US is more concerned than the World? Stay tuned to further developments. As in corn, any
yield reduction or any confirmation of more than 1.7 mil acres lost could put this market right
back into a major rally mood.



 

Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 374'6 377'4 369'2 371'6 -2'2 371'0s 07/31 Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 385'0 387'6 379'2 381'6 -2'4 381'2s 07/31 Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 396'0 398'4 390'2 392'6 -2'6 392'0s 07/31 Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 993'0 995'2 979'0 979'0 -9'4 980'6s 07/31 Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 965'2 966'4 951'4 951'6 -11'2 953'2s 07/31 Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 951'6 952'4 938'0 939'4 -9'6 940'2s 07/31 Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 496'6 503'4 495'6 498'2 2'6 499'2s 07/31 Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 504'2 510'0 502'6 503'6 0'4 504'6s 07/31 Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 511'0 516'2 506'6 509'6 -0'6 510'4s 07/31 Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
@SM - SOYBEAN MEAL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 3583 3592 3510 3552 - 25 3546s 07/31 Chart for @SM5Q Options for @SM5Q
Sep 15 3432 3445 3373 3391 - 40 3387s 07/31 Chart for @SM5U Options for @SM5U
Oct 15 3311 3319 3258 3274 - 32 3273s 07/31 Chart for @SM5V Options for @SM5V
@BO - SOYBEAN OIL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 30.24 30.30 29.90 29.95 -0.30 29.98s 07/31 Chart for @BO5Q Options for @BO5Q
Sep 15 30.37 30.44 30.00 30.05 -0.30 30.10s 07/31 Chart for @BO5U Options for @BO5U
Oct 15 30.46 30.52 30.11 30.14 -0.30 30.21s 07/31 Chart for @BO5V Options for @BO5V
@O - OATS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 235'6 242'0 234'4 240'2 6'2 241'2s 07/31 Chart for @O5U Options for @O5U
Dec 15 245'0 253'0 245'0 250'2 5'4 252'0s 07/31 Chart for @O5Z Options for @O5Z
Mar 16 259'6 261'4 257'4 257'4 3'2 260'6s 07/31 Chart for @O6H Options for @O6H
LH - LHF0 - UNKNOWN
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 20 Chart for LH0F Options for LH0F
LC - LCF0 - UNKNOWN
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 20 Chart for LC0F Options for LC0F
@AC - ETHANOL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 1.510 1.520 1.502 1.502 0.004 1.505s 07/31 Chart for @AC5Q Options for @AC5Q
Sep 15 1.511 1.530 1.498 1.518 -0.002 1.510s 07/31 Chart for @AC5U Options for @AC5U
Oct 15 1.516 1.516 1.501 1.501 -0.008 1.501s 07/31 Chart for @AC5V Options for @AC5V
@DA - MILK CLASS III - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 16.41 16.43 16.27 16.41 0.03 16.41s 07/31 Chart for @DA5Q Options for @DA5Q
Sep 15 16.60 16.61 16.43 16.49 -0.05 16.56s 07/31 Chart for @DA5U Options for @DA5U
Oct 15 16.32 16.36 16.22 16.28 0.01 16.36s 07/31 Chart for @DA5V Options for @DA5V
@TY - 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 126'27.5 127'20.0 126'20.5 127'19.5 0'19.0 127'14.0s 07/31 Chart for @TY5U Options for @TY5U
Dec 15 126'02.5 126'28.0 125'28.5 126'26.0 0'20.0 126'22.5s 07/31 Chart for @TY5Z Options for @TY5Z
Mar 16 126'06.5 0'20.0 126'06.5s 07/31 Chart for @TY6H Options for @TY6H
@ZG - Not Authorized - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 Chart for @ZG5Q Options for @ZG5Q
Sep 15 Chart for @ZG5U Options for @ZG5U
Oct 15 Chart for @ZG5V Options for @ZG5V
SP - S&P 500 INDEX - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 2108.00 2108.50 2095.80 2100.70 - 5.30 2098.40s 07/31 Chart for SP5U Options for SP5U
Dec 15 2090.00 2090.00 2090.00 2090.00 - 5.40 2090.50s 07/31 Chart for SP5Z Options for SP5Z
Mar 16 2092.60 2083.60 2051.40 - 5.40 2085.20s 07/31 Chart for SP6H Options for SP6H
DJ - DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 17617.00 215.00 17617.00s Chart for DJ5U Options for DJ5U
Dec 15 17527.00 215.00 17527.00s Chart for DJ5Z Options for DJ5Z
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Fertilizer
Please give us a call for current and in season
prices for all of your fertilizer needs. We have very
competitive prices on 30% UAN, Starter, MAP,
DAP, AMS, and Potash.  We also offer custom
dry and liquid blends.

(877) 343-4278 or email us @
jon@keystonecommodities.com
 

Disclaimer
An investment in futures contracts involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources, and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

 
 
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