Quote Ticker
  • CORN (Sep 15) 362'6 -0'4 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Dec 15) 374'2 0'0 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • CORN (Mar 16) 385'6 0'2 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Sep 15) 894'4 7'0 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Nov 15) 886'0 6'4 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Jan 16) 891'4 7'0 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Sep 15) 477'6 -7'2 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Dec 15) 483'6 -6'0 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Mar 16) 491'4 -6'0 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Sep 15) 3209 - 15 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Oct 15) 3154 - 19 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Dec 15) 3130 - 23 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Sep 15) 27.81 0.90 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Oct 15) 27.93 0.92 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Dec 15) 28.15 0.93 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Sep 15) 233'0 17'4 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Dec 15) 227'0 6'4 8/28/15   1:19 PM CST
  • OATS (Mar 16) 228'6 6'6 8/28/15   1:16 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Sep 15) 1.440 0.015 8/28/15   2:49 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Oct 15) 1.442 0.016 8/28/15   2:38 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Nov 15) 1.430 0.013 8/28/15   1:16 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Aug 15) 16.31 -0.01 8/28/15   1:12 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Sep 15) 16.16 -0.08 8/28/15   1:54 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Oct 15) 16.37 0.05 8/28/15   1:54 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Sep 15) 127'27.0 -0'05.5 8/28/15   3:59 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Dec 15) 127'08.5 -0'05.0 8/28/15   3:59 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Mar 16) 126'22.5 -0'05.0 8/28/15   2:00 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Sep 15) 1988.50 0.40 8/28/15   3:23 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Dec 15) 1971.00 0.40 8/28/15   3:23 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Mar 16) 1918.40 0.30 8/28/15   3:23 PM CST


Local Cash Bids
North Central PAMill Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Mar 31, 16    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
Western PA Farm Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
South Central PA Mil Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Dec 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Sep 30, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Eastern OH Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Aug 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
Fob New Jersey Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Dec 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
  Chart Sep 30, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Price as of 08/30/15 02:56PM CDT.
Click to view more Cash Bid Trading System

CHART OF THE DAY

Aug 24, 2015

Continuing Themes:
**  US corn  rated 69% Good-Ex. (-1% wk/wk), vs.  72% last year. 21%  dented. USDA Aug Yield:  168.8.
**  Some loss of production in EU/UKR from hot/dry (France off  30%+). Record crops out of Brazil.
** World corn carryout seen at a multi-year high.  World  Stocks/Use at top-end of a ten year range.
** Ethanol margins  breakeven to better.   Hogs $20-25/head profit.  Export competitiveness  suffering.
** Corn facing increased competition for livestock feeding demand  – feed wheat, milo, Brazil corn, etc.
**  Spec funds moved from record net shorts  in early summer, to  big longs June-July, to near flat today.

Overnight, the corn market got off to a quiet start, but was eventually dragged lower by the weight of
“risk-off”  selling,  finishing  ten  cents  lower  by  the  AM  break.    Make  no  mistake,  this  is  pure  financial
mayhem, with hinese equities off 8% overnight, London’s FTSE Index taking out three years of positive
trade, and our own Dow off 600+ points early.  Fundamentals and technical both tend to go out the
window  when  the  margin  man  comes  calling?
Condition  reports  tonight  should  show  some improvement due to last week’s million dollar rains in a lot of
areas.  Weekend rains favored parched North Dakota, Central Iowa, and SE NE.  Rains may have also disrupted
early harvest in the eastern half of Kansas?  6-10 & 8-14 day maps both trend warm and dry, though running out
of time to hurt corn, particularly given the “recharge” in subsoil moisture seen over the past week.  IF bids are firm
to start the week, and are up about a dime in the spot over the last week  – doubt this lasts long given dubious
export demand?  EU’s MARS estimates the bloc has seen a 20% drop in corn yields relative to last year’s
bumper crop.  Argentine farmers are on-strike all week, while Friday’s attle on Feed report confirmed
modest yr/yr gains in cattle “on feed” inventory.

As expected, the $3.80  to $3.90 CZ resistance shelf held the first stab higher in check.   Support stands
at the post-report lows near $3.60 CZ,  though not sure if technical support means much in the current
“risk off” environment? Producers  should hold  “short call, long put” positions established on the
bounce. There  will  be  some  risk  of  adjustment to  the  USDA’s  optimistic initial yield  count,  but
probably not  significantly so  until the Oct or Nov reports. If you believe corn has value at these levels,
look to call spreads to take on some  coverage.


“Bloody Friday” is a pretty accurate way to sum things up, as risk assets – equities, commodities  – saw a
“flight to safety” sell-off.  Corn was no exception, finishing 6  cents lower up-front, and 2-4 cents lower in the deferred,
erasing three days of positive market gains, and posting an outside day reversal lower on the daily chart
(albeit a fairly pedestrian one).  For the week, corn  finished a penny better, but proved unequal to the task of digging
further into resistance.  Funds were estimated  net sellers of 10,000 corn Friday.  CFTC data after the close reported
funds as net sellers of 31,000 corn through  Tuesday the 18th.

That would capture post-WASDE report trade, and would imply they were net long the corn market by
just  15,000  contracts.    Index  funds  were  also  small net  sellers,  and  remain  long  the  corn market  by
335,000 contracts.  The Pro Farmer Tour wrapped up its week-long run with the release of a final US
corn yield projection.  They pegged 2015 US corn yields at 164.3, which compares to the  USDA’s 168.8
bpa August report, and the record 171.0 bpa from 2014.  While this may continue to fuel skepticism
over the USDA’s larger-than-expected August yield projection, the Pro Farmer Tour is more water cooler
fodder than serious science.


Local Conditions
Mifflintown, PA
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 80oF Feels Like: 83oF
Humid: 67% Dew Pt: 68oF
Barom: 30.06 Wind Dir: N
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 0 mph
Sunrise: 6:32 Sunset: 7:43
As reported at SELINSGROVE, PA at 3:00 PM
 
Local Radar
Mifflintown, PA
Radar
 
Local Forecast
Mifflintown, PA

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
High: 85°F
Low: 57°F
Precip: 43%
High: 85°F
Low: 66°F
Precip: 20%
High: 87°F
Low: 65°F
Precip: 0%
High: 88°F
Low: 66°F
Precip: 20%
High: 88°F
Low: 67°F
Precip: 20%
View complete Local Weather

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Video Clips

It was a macro – melt down day to end the week here with literally every commodity market
under  pressure  in  response  to  a  big  break  in  the  $US  and  equities. China  started  this  with
currency devaluations and quantitative easing pushing liquidity into banks. The World decided
that the need to do these things was a sure sign of how bad their domestic economy was. There
is concern that the only tool left for China to support/kick start their economy is to cut banking
reserve requirements currently at 18 pct. US equities have lost 10 pct of their value on this fast
break

Chi Dec wheat ended the week off 8 while KC was off 17 cents. Dec corn was up 2 on the
week. But ended with an outside day down. Nov beans were off 27 cents and made a new low
close for this contract. Meal was unch to slightly higher on the week. Oil closed he week off 1.75
in a big capitulations for the week moving into new lows. Board crush rallied 10 to 12 cents off
the lows this week. Our trade short crush was predicated on tightening bean inventories. The
rains this week have helped solidify larger bean yields and takes away the potential of a big
break in margins now. Move away from this trade if still in it.


Pro Farmer has issued production estimates. Corn is 164.3 bpa for a crop of 13.323 bil bu. This
compares to USDA at 168.8 and 13,686 bil bu. Beans were estimated at 46.5 bpa for a crop of
3.887. This compares to USDA at 46.9 bpa and 3.916 bil bu. They did not adjust acres. Informa
issued new acreage estimates overnight lowering planted beans by 1 mil acres, corn by 255
thou  acres,  and  winter  wheat  bu  475  thou acres.  They  increased  spring  wheat  by  150  thou
acres. If you apply a 1 mil reduction in bean acres to the Pro Farmer estimates, it would reduce
bean  production  another  45  mil  bu.  Would  take  ending  stocks  down  to  387  mil  bu.  This
corn production estimate takes corn ending stocks down to 1,450 from the 1,713 by USDA. If
the market believes, corn will rebound from weak close on Friday. This is a question mark. The
bean production estimates were not as dynamic and confirm that yields have improved in areas
with rains over the last two weeks. More than adequate year end stocks are expected in spite of
a loss in area.

Wheat ended the week flat but in the lower end of the trading range. Fund short coving may be
mostly done without much loss this past week. There are layers of resistance over the market ---
rallies may still be pretty anemic. Look for the market to develop a trading range of 5.00 to 5.25
in  Dec  wheat. Takes  a trade  over  5.33  to turn the market more  positive. Chi  carries remain
rather tight. There continues rumors that deliveries may be a source for cash wheat for the mills
as they have relaxed vomo limits? KC carries had narrowed early in the week but gave it all
back  with  U/N  back  to  55  cents  carry.  The  harvest time  storage  rates  move  back  down  to
normal on Dec 1---surely the trade knows that?

Dec corn spent 3 days trading over 3.80 but was not able to build on the rally or manage to hold
the gains. At the highs on Friday, Dec was 27 cents off the post report lows. A lot if you give the
lows made on the report day any credibility. They make a deep mark on the charts but just did
not last long? Corn basis continues to firm in most markets on lack of farmer selling. Flat price
is obviously into resistance but it will get much heavier at 3.85 to 3.90. A move back through the
lows of last week at 3.57 would likely set Dec on a trip to test 3.55 to 3.50. Do bearish things in
corn on a rally into 3.90 to 3.95.

Nov  beans has  a  new low  close  for  the  trade.  Call  this  the  rain  trade. Yields are  obviously
gaining. USDA may be right this time with big yields but it came on the rains of the last two
weeks. Down side targets are 8.55 to 8.50. Look for the markets to have issues on a rally over
9.25 to 9.30 Nov. Do bearish things at that level. Dec meal resistance is at 320.00 to 322.00.
Targets are still at 300.00. Not sure there is a reason for users to be too aggressive here but
extending pricing into the end of the year at this level makes sense. Dec bean oil got to 27.50.
Resistance at 29.00 to 29.50. No reason to press this market. Note the oil spreads are nearing
full carry. Could turn into a low risk bullish trade?


Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 362'4 368'6 362'2 362'6 -0'4 363'2s 02:00P Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 374'2 380'0 374'0 374'2 0'0 375'0s 02:00P Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 386'0 391'2 385'2 385'6 0'2 386'4s 02:00P Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 887'2 895'6 884'0 894'4 7'0 893'2s 02:00P Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 880'0 888'6 876'2 886'0 6'4 885'4s 02:00P Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
Jan 16 885'0 893'2 881'0 891'4 7'0 890'6s 02:00P Chart for @S6F Options for @S6F
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 484'6 487'4 476'0 477'6 -7'2 477'0s 02:00P Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 490'0 493'4 482'6 483'6 -6'0 483'6s 02:00P Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 498'0 501'0 490'4 491'4 -6'0 491'6s 02:00P Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
@SM - SOYBEAN MEAL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 3235 3258 3204 3209 - 15 3214s 02:00P Chart for @SM5U Options for @SM5U
Oct 15 3174 3197 3145 3154 - 19 3154s 02:00P Chart for @SM5V Options for @SM5V
Dec 15 3152 3177 3116 3130 - 23 3127s 02:00P Chart for @SM5Z Options for @SM5Z
@BO - SOYBEAN OIL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 27.02 27.82 26.86 27.81 0.90 27.79s 02:00P Chart for @BO5U Options for @BO5U
Oct 15 27.15 27.95 26.96 27.93 0.92 27.92s 02:00P Chart for @BO5V Options for @BO5V
Dec 15 27.38 28.20 27.21 28.15 0.93 28.17s 02:00P Chart for @BO5Z Options for @BO5Z
@O - OATS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 217'6 237'6 217'6 233'0 17'4 234'4s 02:00P Chart for @O5U Options for @O5U
Dec 15 222'6 230'0 221'2 227'0 6'4 228'4s 02:00P Chart for @O5Z Options for @O5Z
Mar 16 222'2 230'0 221'6 228'6 6'6 228'0s 02:00P Chart for @O6H Options for @O6H
LH - LHF0 - UNKNOWN
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 20 Chart for LH0F Options for LH0F
LC - LCF0 - UNKNOWN
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 20 Chart for LC0F Options for LC0F
@AC - ETHANOL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 1.445 1.446 1.426 1.440 0.015 1.443s 02:00P Chart for @AC5U Options for @AC5U
Oct 15 1.420 1.444 1.420 1.442 0.016 1.438s 08/28 Chart for @AC5V Options for @AC5V
Nov 15 1.411 1.431 1.411 1.430 0.013 1.428s 08/28 Chart for @AC5X Options for @AC5X
@DA - MILK CLASS III - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 16.32 16.33 16.31 16.31 -0.01 16.31s 02:00P Chart for @DA5Q Options for @DA5Q
Sep 15 16.23 16.41 16.13 16.16 -0.08 16.17s 02:00P Chart for @DA5U Options for @DA5U
Oct 15 16.40 16.56 16.31 16.37 0.05 16.40s 02:00P Chart for @DA5V Options for @DA5V
@TY - 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 127'27.0 128'11.0 127'21.5 127'27.0 -0'05.5 127'25.0s 02:00P Chart for @TY5U Options for @TY5U
Dec 15 127'08.0 127'24.5 127'03.0 127'08.5 -0'05.0 127'06.5s 02:00P Chart for @TY5Z Options for @TY5Z
Mar 16 126'22.5 -0'05.0 126'22.5s 08/28 Chart for @TY6H Options for @TY6H
@ZG - Not Authorized - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 Chart for @ZG5U Options for @ZG5U
Oct 15 Chart for @ZG5V Options for @ZG5V
Dec 15 Chart for @ZG5Z Options for @ZG5Z
SP - S&P 500 INDEX - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 1977.00 1990.50 1971.80 1988.50 0.40 1989.70s 08/28 Chart for SP5U Options for SP5U
Dec 15 1969.00 1981.00 1967.60 1971.00 0.40 1981.00s 08/28 Chart for SP5Z Options for SP5Z
Mar 16 1973.40 1961.40 1918.40 0.30 1974.70s 08/28 Chart for SP6H Options for SP6H
DJ - DJF0 - UNKNOWN
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 20 Chart for DJ0F Options for DJ0F
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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prices for all of your fertilizer needs. We have very
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DAP, AMS, and Potash.  We also offer custom
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(877) 343-4278 or email us @
jon@keystonecommodities.com
 

Disclaimer
An investment in futures contracts involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources, and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

 
 
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