Quote Ticker
  • CORN (Jul 15) 360'2 -5'0 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • CORN (Sep 15) 366'6 -4'6 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • CORN (Dec 15) 378'0 -4'4 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Jul 15) 925'2 -14'2 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Aug 15) 916'2 -13'4 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEANS (Sep 15) 908'0 -12'6 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Jul 15) 514'4 -6'6 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Sep 15) 522'4 -6'4 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • WHEAT (Dec 15) 536'4 -5'4 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Jul 15) 3042 1 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Aug 15) 3001 - 11 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN MEAL (Sep 15) 2973 - 15 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Jul 15) 31.62 -0.61 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Aug 15) 31.68 -0.61 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • SOYBEAN OIL (Sep 15) 31.70 -0.59 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • OATS (Jul 15) 237'0 -1'6 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • OATS (Sep 15) 248'2 -1'6 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • OATS (Dec 15) 257'0 -1'4 5/22/15   1:30 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Jun 15) 83.750 -0.050 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Jul 15) 83.600 -0.125 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • LEAN HOGS (Aug 15) 83.900 -0.350 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Jun 15) 152.100 - 0.250 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Aug 15) 150.725 - 0.200 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • LIVE CATTLE (Oct 15) 152.575 - 0.025 5/22/15   1:15 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Jun 15) 1.572 -0.002 5/22/15   1:16 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Jul 15) 1.555 -0.002 5/22/15   2:40 PM CST
  • ETHANOL (Aug 15) 1.534 -0.002 5/22/15   1:16 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (May 15) 16.22 -0.01 5/22/15   1:27 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Jun 15) 16.48 -0.12 5/22/15   1:11 PM CST
  • MILK CLASS III (Jul 15) 16.66 -0.03 5/22/15   1:31 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Jun 15) 127'14.5 -0'14.0 5/22/15   3:14 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Sep 15) 126'25.0 -0'14.0 5/22/15   3:11 PM CST
  • 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE (Dec 15) 127'28.0 -0'14.0 5/22/15   12:00 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Jun 15) 2125.00 - 3.40 5/22/15   3:20 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Sep 15) 2117.20 - 3.50 5/22/15   3:20 PM CST
  • S&P 500 INDEX (Dec 15) 2102.90 - 3.50 5/22/15   3:20 PM CST
  • DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Jun 15) 18213.00 - 34.00 5/22/15   3:16 PM CST
  • DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Sep 15) 17617.00 215.00     CST
  • DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (Dec 15) 17527.00 215.00     CST


Local Cash Bids
North Central PAMill Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jun 30, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
  Chart Mar 31, 16    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart Aug 31, 15    
Western PA Farm Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart May 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jul 31, 15    
  Chart Aug 31, 15    
South Central PA Mil Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jun 30, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jul 31, 15    
  Chart Aug 31, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Eastern OH Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart May 31, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Winter Wheat Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jul 31, 15    
  Chart Aug 31, 15    
Fob New Jersey Delivery Cash   Basis    
 #2 Yellow Corn Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jun 30, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
 #2 Soft Red Wheat Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Jul 31, 15    
  Chart Aug 31, 15    
 #1 Yellow Soybeans Chart May 31, 15    
  Chart Oct 31, 15    
  Chart Nov 30, 15    
Price as of 05/24/15 05:53AM CDT.
Click to view more Cash Bid Trading System

CHART OF THE DAY

May 22, 2015

** US corn planting seen 85% complete vs. 75% average.  Wet weather to make fieldwork tough?
** Weather in the US & World generally remains favorable at this timing.  BZ/Arg estimates growing.
** World corn carryout seen at a multi-year high.  World Stocks/Use at top-end of a ten year range.
** Ethanol margins perking up.  Livestock “okay”.  Export competitiveness mixed.
** Ethanol/Biofuel Markets awaiting EPA verdict on 2014, 2015, and 2016 mandates by June 1, 2015.
** Spec funds have quietly built up and maintained a large net short position in corn.

Overnight corn trade was steady to slightly higher, finishing 2 cents higher by the morning break.  As of
Thursday’s close, corn was basically unchanged for the week, going into the Memorial Day three day
weekend – trade re-opens Monday night.  In the short-run, the concern lies with too much rain in the
US, not too little; 7-day rain totals up to 5-8” for soggy S. Plains & up to 3” into the Central Corn Belt.
More of a concern for wheat at this point – aggressive short-covering there will no doubt bleed into corn
to a certain degree?  The rest of the US is generally seeing beneficial 0.5-1.5” totals.  Three month NOAA
outlook maps released yesterday show a “benign” summer outlook – below average temps and average
precip chances.  This fits with the outlook of an “El Nino” year, which typically promotes good summer
growing  weather  in  the  US.

Perhaps  in  response,  the  option  pits  reported  massive  buying  by  one
customer of 10,000 short dated Sept 340/360 put spreads from 5 5/8 to 5 ¾ and 24,000 short dated
Sept 320/300 put spreads from 1 to 1 1/8.  June options expire on the close today.  Ethanol margins
slipped another notch Thurs after Wed’s bear report, but remain positive by 50-60 cents/bu.  Cattle on
Feed  report  due  out  with  a  rare  “during  the  session”  release  Friday;  markets  expect  a  modest  yr/yr
increase in ‘on feed’ inventory.

$3.70-3.75 CN resistance continues to stymie rally attempts, while the broader $3.45-$3.55 support
shelf should contain weakness into June days.  Stuck for a moment, as the trade awaits a story?  As
the market sets back, consider owning Sept Calls or Call Spreads as summer weather protection.
Though another burst of short-covering in wheat grabbed the headlines again today, the surprise may
have  been  how  well  corn  performed  of  the  day.
Futures  finished  5  cents  higher,  and  was  likely
supported into the close by profit-taking in “long wheat, short corn” intraday trades.

Farmers were small sellers on the highs today, but in general remain quiet.  Funds covered 10,000
shorts today, but are  still  believed  net  short  over  150,000  corn  contracts.

The  weekly  export  sales  report  was  solid,
featuring 812,600 metric tons (mt) of old crop sales (along with 80,700 mt new), which was toward the
high end of expectations.  Sales + Shipped stands at 42.3 mmt vs. 45.0 mmt this time last year and 46.3
mmt projected for 14/15 by the USDA.  CIF bids remain weak; spot bids are more than a dime below last
Wed’s high.  There are signs of a potential resolution to the Argentine port strike situation, but reports
in remain in conflict.  An end to the labor unrest would open up one more potential origination point for
corn.  South American crop estimates continue to ratchet higher; Brazil pegged at 82.1 by AgroConsult,
vs. their prior month estimate of 79.4.  One last point - keep an eye out as well for the potential release
of EPA biofuel mandate proposals, due out any time in the next ten days.


Local Conditions
Mifflintown, PA
Chg Zip Code: 
Temp: 40oF Feels Like: 40oF
Humid: 93% Dew Pt: 38oF
Barom: 30.37 Wind Dir: N
Cond: N/A Wind Spd: 0 mph
Sunrise: 5:42 Sunset: 8:25
As reported at SELINSGROVE, PA at 6:00 AM
 
Local Radar
Mifflintown, PA
Radar
 
Local Forecast
Mifflintown, PA

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
High: 80°F
Low: 40°F
Precip: 0%
High: 87°F
Low: 53°F
Precip: 0%
High: 88°F
Low: 61°F
Precip: 40%
High: 89°F
Low: 64°F
Precip: 50%
High: 85°F
Low: 65°F
Precip: 68%
View complete Local Weather

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Video Clips

Shopping at a Harris Teeter grocery store yesterday in DC, I bought four large bananas for only 81 cents,
a mango from Guatemala for $1 and an avocado from Mexico for $2. As I left the store marveling at what a
bargain those exotic fruits are at those prices, I was reminded of this CD post from a few years ago that was
inspired when I had a similar experience purchasing bananas as a local Safeway.

As I commented in 2013, What a bargain! Based on the fruit’s label, those four bananas had traveled from
somewhere near the equator in Colombia to the nearby Harris Teeter store in DC, and even after traveling
more than 2,300 miles from another continent, were available to me for only 20 cents a piece!

The realization that I can walk to a local grocery store and pay 20 cents for an exotic, tropical fruit that was
delivered to me from South America seems like such a miracle that I started to wonder: How do today’s banana
prices compare to prices in the past? Well, here’s a little banana history: Bananas were first available commercially
to American consumers in 1876, when they were introduced at the Philadelphia Centennial Exposition to celebrate
the hundredth anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, and sold for ten cents. In today’s dollars,
that would be the equivalent of about $3.00 per banana, or 15 times more expensive in real cost than the 20 cents I
paid at my local grocery store! Stated differently, the price consumers pay today for bananas is 93% lower
(adjusted for inflation) than the original price paid by Americans in 1876 when they were first introduced.

Over a more recent time period, the chart above displays inflation-adjusted retail banana prices from 1980 to 2015,
based on BLS data, and shows that banana prices have been declining steadily over the last thirty years. Banana prices
today ($0.59 per pound), after adjusting for inflation, are almost 40% lower than in 1980 ($0.98 per pound), see blue line
in chart. It’s likely that nothing has changed as far as the physical product is concerned, but greater efficiencies in
production, distribution, and transportation of bananas have resulted in a price reduction of 39.4% over the last 35 years.

I’ve also calculated he “time cost” of bananas measured in the number of minutes it would take a worker earning the
average hourly wage to earn enough income to purchase a pound of bananas at the retail price in each year
(see red line in chart). By that measure, the “time cost” of bananas has fallen from 3 minutes in 1980 to only 1.7
minutes this year, which is a reduction in cost of 43.3%. At the current average hourly wage today of $20.90
the “time cost” of one 20-cent banana would be less than 35 seconds of work – almost free!

Bottom Line: Let me express my appreciation to the “invisible hand” and the “miracle of the marketplace” that allows me to
purchase tropical fruit from a faraway place at my local grocery for a price (20 cents) that is almost free. At the average hourly
wage today of $20.90, the average American earns enough income in about 35 seconds to purchase a banana that has
traveled more than 2,000 miles to his or her local grocery store! That’s a miracle!


Futures
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 364'0 367'6 359'6 360'2 -5'0 360'0s 05/22 Chart for @C5N Options for @C5N
Sep 15 370'2 374'0 366'2 366'6 -4'6 366'6s 05/22 Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 381'4 384'6 377'0 378'0 -4'4 377'6s 05/22 Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 938'0 942'4 922'6 925'2 -14'2 924'2s 05/22 Chart for @S5N Options for @S5N
Aug 15 929'2 933'6 915'0 916'2 -13'4 916'2s 05/22 Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 918'6 924'4 906'4 908'0 -12'6 907'4s 05/22 Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 521'4 529'0 511'0 514'4 -6'6 515'2s 05/22 Chart for @W5N Options for @W5N
Sep 15 529'0 536'4 518'2 522'4 -6'4 523'0s 05/22 Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 542'0 549'6 532'0 536'4 -5'4 537'0s 05/22 Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
@SM - SOYBEAN MEAL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 3040 3079 3036 3042 1 3042s 05/22 Chart for @SM5N Options for @SM5N
Aug 15 3010 3041 2996 3001 - 11 2999s 05/22 Chart for @SM5Q Options for @SM5Q
Sep 15 2986 3014 2967 2973 - 15 2971s 05/22 Chart for @SM5U Options for @SM5U
@BO - SOYBEAN OIL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 32.31 32.36 31.60 31.62 -0.61 31.64s 05/22 Chart for @BO5N Options for @BO5N
Aug 15 32.32 32.39 31.66 31.68 -0.61 31.69s 05/22 Chart for @BO5Q Options for @BO5Q
Sep 15 32.33 32.42 31.70 31.70 -0.59 31.73s 05/22 Chart for @BO5U Options for @BO5U
O - OATS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jul 15 237'0 -1'6 242'4s 05/22 Chart for O5N Options for O5N
Sep 15 248'2 -1'6 248'2s 05/22 Chart for O5U Options for O5U
Dec 15 257'0 -1'4 257'0s 05/22 Chart for O5Z Options for O5Z
LH - LEAN HOGS - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 83.750 84.050 83.575 83.750 -0.050 83.725s 05/22 Chart for LH5M Options for LH5M
Jul 15 83.800 83.800 83.600 83.600 -0.125 83.725s 05/22 Chart for LH5N Options for LH5N
Aug 15 83.900 83.900 83.900 83.900 -0.350 83.725s 05/22 Chart for LH5Q Options for LH5Q
LC - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 152.250 152.500 151.700 152.100 - 0.250 152.125s 05/22 Chart for LC5M Options for LC5M
Aug 15 150.900 151.000 150.250 150.725 - 0.200 150.700s 05/22 Chart for LC5Q Options for LC5Q
Oct 15 152.550 152.575 152.550 152.575 - 0.025 152.600s 05/22 Chart for LC5V Options for LC5V
@AC - ETHANOL - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 1.582 1.582 1.556 1.572 -0.002 1.575s 05/22 Chart for @AC5M Options for @AC5M
Jul 15 1.560 1.573 1.539 1.555 -0.002 1.555s 05/22 Chart for @AC5N Options for @AC5N
Aug 15 1.534 -0.002 1.533s 05/22 Chart for @AC5Q Options for @AC5Q
@DA - MILK CLASS III - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 15 16.23 16.23 16.21 16.22 -0.01 16.22s 05/22 Chart for @DA5K Options for @DA5K
Jun 15 16.66 16.71 16.47 16.48 -0.12 16.47s 05/22 Chart for @DA5M Options for @DA5M
Jul 15 16.75 16.80 16.56 16.66 -0.03 16.65s 05/22 Chart for @DA5N Options for @DA5N
@TY - 10 YR US TREASURY NOTE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 127'22.5 127'29.0 127'04.0 127'14.5 -0'14.0 127'09.0s 05/22 Chart for @TY5M Options for @TY5M
Sep 15 127'01.0 127'08.0 126'14.0 126'25.0 -0'14.0 126'19.0s 05/22 Chart for @TY5U Options for @TY5U
Dec 15 127'28.0 -0'14.0 126'02.0s 05/22 Chart for @TY5Z Options for @TY5Z
@ZG - Not Authorized - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
May 15 Chart for @ZG5K Options for @ZG5K
Jun 15 Chart for @ZG5M Options for @ZG5M
Jul 15 Chart for @ZG5N Options for @ZG5N
SP - S&P 500 INDEX - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 2124.50 2129.00 2122.80 2125.00 - 3.40 2124.60s 05/22 Chart for SP5M Options for SP5M
Sep 15 2119.00 2121.40 2116.40 2117.20 - 3.50 2116.90s 05/22 Chart for SP5U Options for SP5U
Dec 15 2114.30 2109.30 2102.90 - 3.50 2109.80s 05/22 Chart for SP5Z Options for SP5Z
DJ - DJ INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jun 15 18240.00 18260.00 18195.00 18213.00 - 34.00 18224.00s 05/22 Chart for DJ5M Options for DJ5M
Sep 15 17617.00 215.00 17617.00s Chart for DJ5U Options for DJ5U
Dec 15 17527.00 215.00 17527.00s Chart for DJ5Z Options for DJ5Z
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Fertilizer
Please give us a call for current and in season
prices for all of your fertilizer needs. We have very
competitive prices on 30% UAN, Starter, MAP,
DAP, AMS, and Potash.  We also offer custom
dry and liquid blends.

(877) 343-4278 or email us @
jon@keystonecommodities.com
 

Disclaimer
An investment in futures contracts involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources, and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 

 
 
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